By Jim Roddy, President & CEO at the RSPA
I shared on the main stage at the recent Retail Management Hero Partner Conference what RSPA sees as the top trends in the retail IT channel, and today I’m offering those insights to you, our loyal RSPA Blog readers.
Our analysis isn’t based on me staring at the ceiling tiles in my office and shouting “Eureka!” when a thought comes to mind. It stems from the RSPA team’s engagement with our 750+ member organizations through one-on-one interactions, community meetings, focus groups, RSPA Board of Directors strategy sessions, and survey results.
These trends are ranked in order with the most impactful on the retail IT channel listed first.
#1 AI & Automation: Efficiency, Analytics, Personalization & More
Everybody in our channel is talking about AI and wondering what related actions they should take – and what AI noise they should tune out.
The newly formed RSPA AI Advisory Group has whittled down the AI discussions to focus primarily on two areas:
- Internal Efficiency-Focused AI Applications for VARs & ISVs
- External Revenue-Generating AI Applications VARs & ISVs Can Integrate & Sell to Merchants
Efficiency is the easier topic to grasp on the surface; tools like ChatGPT, Gemini, Copilot, and Perplexity are helping VARs and ISVs complete tasks faster. Advanced AI tools and the revenue-generating part are trickier.
Which tools are best? Do I sell AI tools separately? Do I integrate them into my current offering? Should I build applications myself? Did you say “vibe coding”?
Those who have deep AI experience and a firm understanding of it say there’s tons of opportunity for solution providers to help their merchants. Hopefully we learn in 2026 the range of applications that work best and generate the most recurring revenue.
Stay tuned to the RSPA website for the launch of the RSPA AI Resource Hub, and register for the RSPA Inspire 2026 leadership conference which will feature an interactive, expert-led workshop focused on AI in the retail IT channel.
#2 Competing Against Margin-Obliterating, VC-Backed, 800-Number, One-Size-Fits-All POS Providers Who Don’t Have a Channel
This continues to be the top near-term challenge for our channel. It’s most prevalent in the restaurant vertical, but retail and grocery VARs are telling us they’re also bumping into 800-number guys when bidding on new deals.
As I’ve said and written before, the more I study the current and anticipated future state of our industry, the more I believe the smart move is to bet on the channel. For additional details on this trend, read RetailNOW 2025 Analysis: I’m Betting on Our Independent Mesh Network of Entrepreneurs.
#3 Partner Collaboration: Now a Strategic Imperative – and Now Featuring ISOs
I’ve attended the NRF Big Show every January for many years, and most booths have echoed a common theme: Work with us, and we’ll take care of everything you need. But at this year’s show, many shifted to this message: We’re great at partnering and integrating with other providers, so if you work with us, you’ll get connected to everything you need.
That’s been the channel mantra for a while where partnerships are core. It’s great to see the rest of the industry realizing one provider can’t do it all but, with the right partnerships, the possibilities are endless.
The ISO/agent aspect of this trend is being driven by trend #2. ISOs are payments-first organizations, and many have adapted from selling simplistic payments terminals to a “POS light” solution. They’re crashing head-on into the 800-number guys – and losing deals to them – because their solutions can’t keep up.
We’re seeing more ISOs join the RSPA community with the intent of:
- growing into a VAR business model with an expanded product/service offering,
- partnering with existing VARs to lean on their relationships and service capabilities while acting as a new sales channel for the VAR, and/or
- seeking new ISV relationships so the ISO has a stronger offering against the 800-number giants.
#4 Shifting Revenue Models: From Hardware to Services (MSPs in Retail)
When most POS solutions featured a proprietary all-in-one system, they weren’t attractive to Managed Services Providers (MSPs) who sold and serviced laptops. But now that many POS systems are on tablets and other less complex devices, MSPs aren’t scared of the retail vertical and are entering the space.
Conversely, traditional POS VARs have become accustomed to recurring revenue through services they offer, so with each passing year they become less of a reseller and more of an MSP. Services on the RSPA’s updated Ultimate List of Recurring Revenue Products and Services have become the main top-line source for many VARs in the retail IT channel.
The “VAR” moniker will stick around the retail IT channel in 2026, but we’ll be hearing more about MSPs for sure.
#5 Tariffs + Supply Chain Pressure = Uncertainty
This is one trend I think everyone in our channel hopes disappears in 2026. I joked at the RMH event that if I played a drinking game where I consumed a shot of alcohol every time I heard an RSPA member say the word “uncertainty,” I wouldn’t be able to stand up by lunchtime most weekdays.
Another common phrase we hear from VAR and ISV members is “doing well despite the uncertainty.” Hardware vendors and distributors, unfortunately, are experiencing more frequent and stronger headwinds than their partners.
During the recent RSPA online roundtable “Navigating Tariffs & Trade Across the Canadian Retail IT Channel,” members described how shifting tariffs, sudden U.S. executive orders, and evolving import classifications have disrupted manufacturing, importing, and distribution.
For details, read our AI-generated roundtable summary Navigating Tariffs & Trade Across the Canadian Retail IT Channel: Key Takeaways.
#6 “Forever Labor Shortage”
The world record for a human holding their breath is 29 minutes. Unless you plan on breaking that record by about 250,000x, don’t hold your breath for the current labor shortage to pass.
While that might make hiring managers frown, it could be a boon for high-initiative VARs and ISVs. Retailers, restaurants, and grocers will need to fill their incessant labor gap with more and better technology.
To summarize the retail IT channel’s top trends entering 2026:
- AI & Automation
- Competing Against 800-Number Giants
- Partner Collaboration (ISOs)
- Shifting Revenue Models (MSPs)
- Tariffs = Uncertainty
- “Forever Labor Shortage”
